When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

From the live look-ins at committee members around a table each week to televised statements from the various chairmen, it seems clear that the College Football Playoff selection committees of the past 11 seasons have operated in a meeting room that has always lacked both an open bar and a contracted certified bourbon steward.