Still, last year's two highest-ranked teams—Oregon and Georgia—both were one-and-done in 2024's tournament, while No. 2 Ohio State and No. 4 Texas Tech didn't survive this season (another caveat worth noting here—Oregon was favored over the Red Raiders on Thursday).

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season.

No. 2 Ohio State’s upset loss to No. 10 Miami not only ensured that the Buckeyes wouldn’t be the third team to win back-to-back national championships since 2011, but it also means the semifinals of the 2026 College Football Playoff are completely unrecognizable from the year before.

Even in the midst of Mississippi's thrilling 39-34 comeback win over Georgia in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Thursday, Lane Kiffin's shadow is still hovering over the program as it begins preparations for the next round.

The quarterfinals of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff are underway as teams look to move one step closer to a national championship. The quarterfinal round, which features the Cotton, Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls, began on New Year’s Eve and will wrap up on New Year’s Day.

Dante Moore, a potential top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, completed 26-of-33 passes for 234 yards and an interception. Nothing special — again, Oregon’s defense carried them — but enough to keep Texas Tech at bay. Oregon now joins Miami among confirmed College Football Playoff semifinalists.

Miami and Ole Miss pulled off upsets in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. They'll meet in the Fiesta Bowl. We break down the matchup.